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Quantitative9 min readJun 13, 2026

Trading After the News: An Acceptance Model

Why the candle after the spike matters more than the spike. Defining 'acceptance' objectively and backtesting it across 18 months of CPI and NFP releases.

Defining acceptance

Acceptance = two consecutive M15 closes beyond the pre-news range extreme, with the second candle's low (for longs) holding above the extreme.

Results across 38 releases

Continuation trades taken only after acceptance formed reached a 2R target 61% of the time. Trades taken inside the news candle itself — the control group — hit 2R just 33% of the time with triple the average adverse excursion.

Rules derived

  1. No orders in the book during tier-1 releases.
  2. No entries for 15 minutes after the print, minimum.
  3. Entry only on acceptance as defined above; skip the day if it never forms.
news tradingvolatilitybacktest